Blogs | Milan, the Scudetto and the economic value of the players. What the data says

Winning a scudetto on the last day always tastes different from the others. Winning a Scudetto against the direct rivals of the same city, the so-called “cousins”, has an even more particular flavour. The enthusiasm of the Rossoneri people should therefore come as no surprise who, eleven years after their last championship win, can celebrate doubly having achieved the two circumstances just mentioned in one fell swoop.

Among the social jokes that range 360° from the “duck” that condemned Inter in the match against Bologna to those that focus on the “new” race towards the second star (the twentieth Scudetto) as yet another challenge in the city, there is a detail that objectively puts everyone in agreement on Milan’s recent feat. Having won a championship against the odds and against the numbers that absolutely didn’t see her as the number one favorite.

And so here, with all due respect to all the fans, especially the Inter fans (like whoever wrote this article, alas), we at Info Data wanted to take a look at this more objective approachso as to refrain from personal sympathies, leaving room for data as we usually do.

To do this, in the first place, we took a leap “into the past” by dusting off the forecasts that date back to last summer by FiveThiryEight which, as some readers will recallhad previously guessed the outcome of the championship ten months in advance.

The following graph shows the values ​​of the SPI – Soccer Power Index – for all twenty teams competing for Serie A, calculated during last August and accompanied, as usual, by the relative probability of victory according to the simulation of the algorithm by Nate Silver and associates.

For those unfamiliar with it, the mechanism that underlies this system provides that each team is associated with an early season value based mainly on two factors: the previous season’s indicator and the value of its squad according to Transfermarket quotations .

In detail, in addition to the overall SPI indicator, there are two other values ​​which represent the offensive and defensive rating of each team and which, respectively, indicate the number of goals scored and conceded against the “average team” playing a match on a field neutral.

Going to see what the summer scenario was, the (by now) former Italian champions Inter were given as the favorites to repeat the 2020/21 title with a 27% probability, while Milan were listed “only” as fifth team against a SPI of 77.1 which had been associated with a win probability of just 10%.

Before the team coached by Stefano Pioli, in addition to the aforementioned Inter, leaders with 83.3 (to which the best defensive rating was also attributed), in fact appeared Juventus (best offensive rating) with 81.8, Atalanta (80.1) and Naples (78.4).

In hindsight, at the end of the championship, in addition to having underestimated the potential of Milan who closed the thirty-eight games with the best defense on a par with Napoli conceding thirty-one goals, the FiveThirtyEight algorithm overestimated Juventus’ offensive prolificacy who, despite having a 2.5 as an offensive indicator, ended the season with just 57 goals scored, practically one less on average than assumed by the forecast.

Not top players? No problem…

The second aspect on which we decided to focus, curiously as also contemplated by the algorithm for calculating the Soccer Power Index, was the market value of the Rossoneri squad, by examining the data made available by Transfermarkt.

The following graphs show the values ​​expressed in millions of euros of the twenty teams participating in the championship that has just ended, as well as the list of the top twenty players by absolute value, indicating Milan’s data in red in both representations.

Also in this case, the numbers tell of a team that objectively seemed to be a step below its direct rivals for the important positions in the Italian championship, but which, evidently, has been able to overturn the statistical component with something that goes beyond mere data.

Analyzing the market value of the squad of the new Italian champions, the 480 million euros are in fact only worth the fourth position, behind Juventus (555 million), Inter (529) and Napoli (540)before a “jump” of one hundred million rounds which separates them from Atalanta in fifth place (385), followed by Roma (370).

In any case, if the Rossoneri are able to continue on the new path undertaken even with the change of course that took place in 2019 with the arrival of the new technical and sports managers, it is probable that the value of the squad will continue to increase, especially if the valuable pieces will be valued or in case of important arrivals as a prize for the scudetto that has just been won.

It will therefore be up to the flag and ex-captain Paolo Maldini to continue a market strategy aimed at acquiring profiles of a level that is not of the very first European level (just think of the recent renewal of Mbappè at Paris Saint Germain to get an idea of ​​the different orders of circulating in Europe at the moment) but certainly in line with the Italian reality, in order to reinforce a squad that has already been able to outdo itself and exceed everyone’s expectations.

As anticipated, similarly to the overall value of the teams, also from the point of view of the individuals, temporarily (with the data updated in May), there is not a real top player in the strict sense among the ranks of Milan, as demonstrated by the top 10 in which only players from other Serie A formations appear.

In the list of the top ten players that sees Vlahovic at the top, bought in the winter from Juventus and now worth 85 million euros, there are three names from Juventus (in addition to Vlahovic, we find Chiesa and de Ligt), four from Inter (Martinez, Barella, Skriniar and Bastoni), two from Napoli (Osimhen and Ruiz) and finally Milinkovic-Savic from Lazio.

To find the first Milan player, you have to get to eleventh position (tied with Zielinski of Roma) in which Rafael Leao appears, quoted at fifty million (compared to the twenty-four paid for it) who has just finished the championship with eleven goals and ten assists; again, these are not absolute superstar numbers, but they are the ones that, together with the rest of the team, allowed Milan to win the Italian flag on their chest for next season.

Immediately behind, there is then the trio made up of the two pivots of the Rossoneri defense, namely Theo Hernandez (48 million) and Fikayo Tomori (45), and by midfielder Franck Kessiè (45) who, however, is already leaving, heading towards Barcelona to Xavi’s court on a free transfer, now at the end of his contract.

Closes the list of top 20 players in the series To Sandro Tonali who, with his forty million market value, is the fourth most quoted Italian behind Federico Chiesa (70), Nicolò Barella (70) and Alessandro Bastoni (60), despite being the youngest of the quartet at just twenty-two.

To know more.

Choose the Serie A football team and find out how much money it spent to pay the agents. Juventus wins

Who will win the Serie A football championship? Nate Silver’s predictions and some considerations

The transfer market is over. Which teams have the richest player rosters? And the most efficient ones?

Blogs | Milan, the Scudetto and the economic value of the players. What the data says – Info Data