If one is guided by the description they made separately Cristina and Maximo Kirchner in the acts that they led days ago, the management that they unilaterally attribute to Alberto Fernandez it’s bad. So much so that they no longer know how to ask him to step down from an eventual re-election. However, the last poll that reached them both, prepared by the consultant they trust the most, shows a improvement in the President’s numbers and even a slight rise in other data sensitive: economic expectations.
But the most striking thing is that, from this scenario, the survey goes one step further and advises them what to do to improve between “10 and 12 points” and fight hand in hand in 2023, in an election that they predict again very polarized.
The study you agreed to Clarion It is analogiesthe firm that officially measured for Cristina-Senadora’s campaign in 2017 and since then has worked as the head pollster for the K. Not only to evaluate the classic conjuncture data, but also to test our own initiatives, such as all judges paying Profits.
Between October 29 and 31, the consultant made a national survey of 2,701 cases, with interviews in the 24 provinces, and presented the results with +/- 2% margin of error. The initial veneer, where they blend results and analysisit starts like this:
– “The support base of the national government recovered 5 percentage pointsreached almost 38 points in the sample, returned to June levels and is located at the average value of the last 12 measurements”.
– “The positive image of President Alberto Fernández also recovered to reach its annual average level of around 37 points”.
– “In terms of economic expectationsthe ‘optimism’ about the evolution of the economy remained in the order of 28% of the sample, the average value of the monthly measurements of the year 2022, and although it cannot recover the levels of 2021, exceeds the dismal levels of the fateful quarter April-Junein which the disorientation of the economic policy that led to the untimely resignation of Martín Guzmán was discounted”.
tips to win
But the most interesting thing appears in the second half of the presentation of the report, where he suggests what to do to win or at least fight with greater possibilities the 2023 elections. They basically aim to recover the support of the “disenchanted”, those millions of moderate votes that vanished between the 2019 and 2021 votes. According to the calculation made by the consultant, it would be between 10 and 12 additional points to those they currently have. .
In somewhat convoluted language, he explains it thus:
– “Although the conditions are adverse for the ruling party, we have been pointing out that there is a public agenda that would allow him to resume dialogue with segments that supported him in 2019 and that they veered towards moderate critical positions”.
– “Use that additional deployment capacity that every government has It would help to reconcile its level of effective support with a plexus of thematic opinions mostly adverse to the options of the right, which are part of the Front of All Program and platform.
– “The more than likely context of polarization that will be presented in the electoral process next year would be facilitated and clarified with a stricter articulation of the social demand on the part of the Government”.
– “It is an accessible goal from the quantitative point of view, if we observe that the Front of All requires at this point between 10 and 12 additional points of support, which are available among the segments of moderate opposition opinions.”
The key numbers of the study
After that introduction, the 49 page report it is unraveling the tables and results. From the outset, numbers are seen that improve for the Frente de Todos.
– In the division that makes the respondents between official and opposition, the proportion was 37.6% vs. 62.4%. The previous measurement gave 32.6% vs. 67.4%. Those almost 38 points of support for the ruling party are the ones that They explain that the consultancy assures that they need to reconquer between 10 and 12 more to win next year.
– Refering to Alberto Fernandez’s picture, the positive rose from 31.5% to 36.9% and the negative fell from 65.4% to 60%. These are their best figures since April.
– In the economic expectationsthe rebound is milder: those who believe that the situation will improve in two years’ time went from 27.1% to 28.4%, while those who are pessimistic fell from 65.2% to 61.7%.
Afterwards, the study revolves around the agenda that Kirchnerism seeks to impose: outwards, confronting the opposition, and inwards, to mark the field in the official coalition. Examples?
– Ask if it would be necessary to dictate a general increase in wages through a fixed sum and the 65.8% predictably answer yes.
– raises if the judges must pay Profits like the rest of the workers and the 76.3% answered affirmatively.
Finally, he also gets into another debate to confront the opposition. Or better, with Mauricio Macriwho has been warning about the deficit of public companies and announced that this time, for example, he would privatize Aerolineas Argentina if it maintains those losses.
According to the numbers analogiesin general, the image of public companies is good, but when it directly raises if they have to be privatized like in the 90s, the answers are quite divided: 37.9% say yes, against 41.9% who think no; the remaining 20.2% “don’t know”.