The new Italian electoral structure (the result of the conjunction between Rosatellum and the cut of the parliamentarians) draws a political geography still to be deciphered. Adding further uncertainty to the overall picture are two other factors: the reorganization of the colleges and the lowering of the age for voting in the Senate. The intervention of Angelo Ciardullo and Angelo Lucarella
Great is the confusion under the sky. And for this very reason – looking at the Italian political situation two weeks after the vote – not even the most optimistic of Confucians would be able to complete the famous Maoist motto by adding “the situation is excellent”.
The new Italian electoral structure (the result of the conjunction between Rosatellum and the cut of the parliamentarians) draws a political geography still to be deciphered. Two other factors add further uncertainty to the overall picture: the reorganization of the colleges – a direct consequence of the reduction in the number of parliamentarians – and the lowering of the age for voting in the Senate.
The redefinition of the colleges, entrusted to a commission of experts chaired by the head of Istat (Gian Carlo Blangiardo), was completed between 2019 and 2020 with the aim of creating portions of the territory as homogeneous as possible from an administrative point of view and the number of inhabitants. No American-style gerrymandering, therefore, but a series of well-defined criteria, even if not always easy to apply.
These new “borders” will not bring major upheavals to the system as a whole, but will end up reducing the electoral influence of some large centers, destined to dilute in that of the hinterland where voting intentions (now impossible to speak of “local roots “) May in some cases be diametrically opposed to those of the capitals. Dynamic, the latter, which could prove to be very risky. mostly. for the so-called “parties of the Ztl” (whose voters appear to be confined to the most central and affluent areas of the cities) such as the Democratic Party.
However, according to the estimates published by the Sole24Ore Plus on 19 August, metropolitan areas should be decisive only in 16% of single-member seats in the Chamber (24 out of 147, of which 14 direct expression of the Municipality) and in 24% of those in the Senate (18 out of 74, of which 6 expression direct from the Municipality).
Another element (yes of great novelty) is the lowering of the minimum age to be able to vote in the Senate from 25 to 18 years. An absolute unprecedented in our republican history that has prompted many political leaders to sign up on TikTok (with more or less unlikely and hilarious results) in an attempt to intercept a large slice of “new” potential voters amounting to about 3.8 million voters , equal to 8.2% of those entitled.
The big question, then, is what will be the effect of all these factors on the response of the polls?
A first possible answer comes from YouTrend and Cattaneo Zanetto & Co. who – based on the Supermedia of the polls carried out in the first ten days of August – have created a simulation that sees the center-right win without appeals both in the Chamber and in the Senate. A literally avalanche result which, however, even according to the most recent projections published before the “silence” imposed by Agcom starting from midnight on September 10, would not be enough to ensure the Meloni traction coalition that majority of two thirds of the Chambers needed to carry out the presidential reform of the Constitution.
Determinant on the final outcome of the match will be that portion of undecided (10.1%, according to the latest Ipsos estimates for the Corriere della Sera) of which Gabriele Romagnoli traces with great skill an anthropological profile straddling “mythological figure” and “marketing phenomenon that keeps the talk show market on its feet” on The print of last September 8th.
And precisely the anthropological aspect is what lends itself to the most interesting forms of democracy; indeed here it is the chaos (let us allow the terminological joke) to say when the form is also substance. Because the parliamentary cut, on the other hand, will prove to be for what it is: a dry cut of benches that, although somewhat calmed by the redesign of the colleges, will end up stripping the tree of democracy from above, so much so that many speak of oligarchic risk (how Sabino Cassese).
Have you ever seen the pruning of an olive tree in September (and any reference to existing coalitions is purely coincidental)? Well that’s it (as they say in Bolzano): out of season, out of control, out of the context of political necessity and functionality. Anthropology, on the other hand, being that discipline that studies the human being, considered as a subject or individual and as a member of a community, nothing else opens up another front: the socio-psychological one of the relationship with power.
So, given all the analysis carried out so far, we cannot ignore the fact that the country is going to vote, the first time with the Parliament at 600, with a clear problem of pruning the voices of the representatives.
Let me be clear does not mean that it is valid in terms of good or bad. But like all pruning, the tree needs a new time and space in which to adapt or come back to life.
Who, indeed what, could restore the necessary sap to the tree? Five factors, all with the initial “s”:
– silence (electoral in the sense of reflection on what must be done seriously with 345 less parliamentarians);
– stones (firm constitutional principles);
– loneliness (that of politics which must find itself again);
– drought (that of poor politics which does not mean without salaries or public funding, another issue that requires serious and profound reflection);
– sun (because political culture and knowledge of the reasons of the Constituents can illuminate the new crown of the pruned tree).
This is not a philosophical conclusion of the question, but if we think about it, cutting a Parliament without criteria has the same value as voting without political sense of the delegation that is expressed.
The vote, albeit animated by good intentions, if dropped badly in the necessity of the country’s affairs can lead to systemic distortions.
We know well that, as the anthropologist would say Alessandro Bertinotti, “Every choice is communication”. And then the pruning of the tree just to see it bare is nothing but the condemnation of those who enjoy a bit of wood without knowing how to manage the fire of politics that will light up. This, in addition to being anthropological, is a question of electoral schizophrenia. This on September 25, net of who will legitimately win the elections, will be evident.
Who knows what it will take to remedy one of the most infamous constitutional reforms ever approved. With the contribution, moreover, of a populism with an alleged green thumb (called in neo-coined “popul-pruner”).