“The red Tsunami that was not”

The midterm elections in the United States are a focus of worldwide attention due to the social, political, and even military implications that they represent not only for North Americans, but for countries as dissimilar as Mexico, Taiwan, and Ukraine.

Former President Donald Trump was one of the figures who had the greatest interest in this electoral cycle. After the FBI operation at his Mar-a-lago mansion in Florida, where it seized a significant amount of top-secret documents, Trump militants practically declared war on the Biden administration.

For months the social networks of the so-called “magas” (a reference to the initials of the 2016 presidential campaign, “Make America Great Again”) made frantic calls for fights against the Democrats in a kind of holy war for the soul of the country. At the same time, the propaganda of the Republican party also intensified in its radicalization.

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While for most Americans the economic issue dwarfed all other considerations, in a period of high inflation and fuel prices reaching levels not seen since the 1970s, some Republicans openly declared that if they won they would cut all support. economic to Ukraine. Criticism did not wait establishment of security and geopolitics by pointing out the closeness of these narratives with those of Russian President Vladimir Putin.

In any case, the Republican party facing the 2024 presidential election no longer only has a deflated Trump. The victories in Texas, where Greg Abbot is re-elected, but with greater strategic importance in Florida with the re-election of Governor Ron DeSantis, mean that the figure of Trump, until a few months ago the only strong card, has weakened.

The United States Congress was partly renewed, with the right to abortion being one of the main issues. At the beginning of the year, the Supreme Court annulled the 1973 ruling in the Roe vs. Wade in which abortion was decriminalized in the country. The Court ruled to annul that freedom at the federal level and return to the states the authority to define the legality of the issue. The fact caused a stir among feminists and progressive sectors who saw in this decision a social regression. The Democrats took up the flag to take up the issue in the lower house of Congress, which the Republicans evidently opposed and the campaigns focused in part on this issue. The Lower House, with 435 seats, was completely renewed, with trends in favor of the Republicans with 209 seats, increasing 16, with 50 million votes, and the Democrats with 191, increasing 4 seats, with 44 million votes. . The Republicans require 218 seats to control the chamber, which is still in balance due to the delay in some states with the electoral count.

The Senate renews 35 of the 100 seats in this electoral cycle. The situation is much more closed since the Republicans need to win only two states to control the upper house. Eyes are on Pennsylvania as it could stay in the hands of the Democrats.

The states are important as they are considered a hotbed of potential presidential candidates. While, as mentioned above, Republicans held Texas and consolidated Florida, trends favor Democrats in Massachusetts, Maryland, and Delaware.

The red tsunami that right-wing radicals claimed would blanket the United States with Republican votes simply did not materialize. The debate now, with a view to the 2024 presidential election, is what will happen first, the formal accusation against Trump for the misuse of classified documents, a federal crime, or his self-nomination for the presidential election. North American analysts point out that the Republican party could choose Governor DeSantis as a presidential candidate in view of his tight control of Florida and his 29 votes in the electoral college.

“The red Tsunami that was not”